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李毅:解决朝鲜问题的一揽子方案

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发表于 2018-7-15 01:13 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式




朝鲜统一国际论坛


乌兰巴托,蒙古


2018年6月7-8日




李毅:解决朝鲜问题的一揽子方案




再过六天,2018年6月12日,特朗普将会见金正恩。朝鲜战争1953年停战,但战争并未结束。现在只有一个停战协定。并没有一个和平协定。解决朝鲜问题,需要一个一揽子方案。这个一揽子方案,须要满足美中朝韩四方的最低要求。




美国需要朝鲜弃核,或至少朝鲜不再以美为敌,因为朝鲜的导弹、原子弹、氢弹,现在已经能够打到美国任何地方。为此,美国愿意对朝鲜做出某些让步。比如美国不再以朝为敌,或者必须至少在表面上以朝为友。




中国需要朝鲜半岛保持和平稳定,因为中国已经和平40年了,因为中国军队已经40年没有战争,中国不知道如果朝鲜半岛不和平,如果中朝边境不和平,日子怎么过。当然,中国也不能为了和平,任由美国和日本掌控整个朝鲜半岛。




南北朝鲜都渴望朝鲜统一。朝鲜战争,本来就是为了统一朝鲜,南北朝鲜打内战。现在,南朝鲜内部,无人反对统一,但对何时统一,如何统一,分歧很大,没有一致的意见。但是,南朝鲜内部一致认为,朝鲜半岛不能再发生战争,只能和平统一,不能武力统一。




北朝鲜,为了避免利比亚、伊拉克、乌克兰的下场,全力发展核武,取得了威胁美国本土的完全成功、完全胜利,现在北朝鲜安全了。现在北朝鲜须要发展经济,为了省钱须要裁军。如果美日欧都不再以朝鲜为敌,都不再制裁和封锁朝鲜,都与朝鲜建立外交关系,都不阻挠朝鲜发展经济,等等等等,最终北朝鲜有可能放弃核武。




须要一个一揽子解决方案,满足美中北南朝鲜四方的所有上述要求。上个月,文在寅、金正恩在《板门店宣言》中,明确提出,将由美朝韩三方会谈,或美中朝韩四方会谈,商定解决朝鲜问题的一揽子方案,中国是否参加,由中国自行决定。最近,习近平两次会见金正恩,我假设,这意味着,中国可以参加美中朝韩四方会谈,协商这个一揽子方案。




这个一揽子方案是个什么样子?只有上帝知道。我在2017年9月29日,提出了这样一个一揽子方案,见《李毅:也谈贾庆国论对朝政策》(见互联网)。如下。




这是一个十年规划,分为五个阶段:




第一阶段,双暂停。朝鲜停止核试验、导弹试验。美国停止在朝鲜周边搞军事演习。




第二阶段,第1、2、3年,美军撤出南朝鲜。这就以实际行动保证了朝鲜的安全。




第三阶段,第4、5、6年,在第二、第三阶段,美日欧与北朝鲜建交,南北朝鲜通邮、通商、通航、通铁路、通高速、通高铁。中国高铁贯通朝鲜半岛。




第四阶段,第7、8、9年,中英法俄维和部队(联合国维和部队),进驻南北朝鲜,消除三八线的军事分界线,接管和销毁核武器,为监督选举做准备。中美两国帮助南北朝鲜起草统一后的新宪法,南北朝鲜对新宪法有争论不决的问题时,由中美两国商定。




第五阶段,第10年,根据新宪法,在英法中俄联合国维和部队监督下,实行大选,选出领导人,建立新政府,实现和平统一。一年后,中英法俄联合国维和部队全部撤出朝鲜半岛。




在具体实施过程中,如果10年不够,也可根据实际情况,适当延长到15年,或20年。我假设,这样一个一揽子方案,符合美中朝韩四方的最低利益要求。这个方案能行得通吗?恭请各位学者批判指教。








=====================================================================


International Forum on Korean Unification

Cristal Hall, Blue Sky Hotel

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

June 7-8, 2018


A Package Agreementon Korean Issue


Prof. Li Yi


Trump will meet Kim Jong Un in six days, on June 12,2018. The Korean War was stopped in 1953, but there was only a ceasefireagreement, and there was no peace treaty. A package agreement is needed tosolve the Korean issue. This package agreement should meet the minimumrequirements of all four parts, the US,China, North Korea, and South Korea.


The US needs North Korea giving up nuclear weapons, or atleast North Korea does not take the US as an enemy anymore, since the NorthKorean missiles, nuclear bombs, hydrogen bombs, could reach anywhere in the US.For this token, the US wouldgive some concessions, such as, the USdoes not take North Korea asan enemy, or consider North  Korea as a friend, at least on the surface.


China needspeace and stability in Korean peninsula, since China had enjoyed peacetime duringthe last four decades, and had not fought a war during the same period. Chinadoes not know how to live if there is a war in the Korean peninsula or on theChinese-Korean border. At the same time, China could not afford to let aUS-Japan alliance dominate the Korean peninsula, even without peace.


Both North Koreaand South Korea are eager tounify Korea.The Korean War itself was a civil war, in order to unify Korea. Within South Korea now no one opposesKorean unification, but there is no consensus on when and how. However, thereis a consensus on no war and peaceful unification.


North Korea tried itsbest to develop missiles, nuclear bombs, and hydrogen bombs, to avoid the fateof Libya, Iraq, and Ukraine. North Korea achieved full successand full victory to threaten the American homeland, and secured itself ofpeace. Now North Koreaneeds to develop its economy and disarm to save money. If the US, Japan, andEurope, do not consider North Korea as an enemy anymore, do not imposesanctions and blockade North Korea, establish diplomatic relations with NorthKorea, and do not obstruct North Korea to develop its economy, finally, it ispossible for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.


It needs a package agreement to meet all aboverequirements of all four parts, the US,China,North and South Koreans. Last month, Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un, published a Panmunjom Declaration. In this declaration, MoonJae-in and Kim Jong Un proposed a US-North Korea-South Korea tripartitenegotiation, or a US-China-North Korea-South Korea quadrilateral negotiation.It is up to Chinato decide whether or not to join the negotiation. Recently, Xi Jinping twicemet with Kim Jong Un. I assume, it means that, China would join the quadrilateralnegotiation for the package agreement.


What does this package agreement look like? Only godknows. I proposed such a package agreement, on September 29, 2017, in a shortessay, On Jia Qingguo’s Suggestion to China’s Korean Policy.


It is a ten-year plan, and there are five phases:


In phase one, it is a double stop. North Korea stops nuclear tests and missiletests, and the US stopsmilitary exercises around North  Korea.


In phase two, in the first three years, the US withdraws American military from South Korea, witch provides a safety guaranteefor North Korea.


In phase three, during the 4th, 5th, and 6th year, the US, Japan,and Europe, establishes diplomatic relations with North Korea; North Koreaand South Korea areaccessible by postal communication, have trade relations, open transport meansby sea, land and air, and connect super highway and high-speed rail from China to South Korea.


In phase four, within the 7th, 8th, and 9th year, a UNpeace keeping force, constituted by China,Britain, France, and Russia,enter North Korea and South Korea, eradicate the military demarcationline, the border between the Koreas,control and destroy nuclear weapons, and prepare the monitoring of theelections. The US and China help North Korea and South Korea draft newconstitution for the peaceful unification, in witch if North Korea and SouthKorea have disagreement, the US and China will have a final say.


In phase five, in the 10th year, according to the new constitution,monitored by the UN peacekeeping force, the elections are held, the new leadersare elected, a new government is established, and the peaceful Koreanunification is realized. One year later, the UN peacekeeping force withdrawsfrom Koreapeninsula.


In the process to implement this ten-year plan, if needed, this ten-yearplan can be extended to 15 years, or even 20 years. I assume that, this packageagreement, meets the minimum requirements the US,China, North Korea and South Korea. Does it work? Pleasecriticize me and educate me.






 楼主| 发表于 2018-7-15 01:17 | 显示全部楼层
李毅简介

旅美社会学家,312-316-9663,138-1016-9854。中国西北大学78级文学学士。北京大学社会学系修满研究生学分。美国密苏里大学MU社会学硕士。美国伊利诺伊大学UIC社会学博士。理论研究方向为唯物史观、世界体系论、社会发展大战略。方法论研究方向为定性社会学、历史社会学、比较社会学。学科研究方向为公共政策学、国际社会学、发展社会学、分层社会学。主要英文著作为University Press of America 美国大学出版社 2005年出版的The Structure and Evolution of Chinese Social Stratification 《中国社会分层的结构与演变》,有2008年中译本。在国际学术会议宣读论文十多次。中国国家社科基金项目1990年第489号课题负责人,主编研究生教材《马克思社会思想史纲》1993。中国教育部科研项目【2008】890号“国际社会学的学科建设”课题负责人。著有:《社会学概论》2011,李毅选集第一卷《中国复兴大战略》2015,李毅选集第二卷《中国社会分层结构的演变》2015。

李毅部分英文论著如下,敬请垂注:
http://www.univpress.com/ISBN/0761833315
http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/62470986
http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/71438053

李毅部分中文论著如下,敬请垂注:
1. 李毅选集第一卷《中国复兴大战略》,2015,九州出版社。
http://product.dangdang.com/23708534.html
https://item.jd.com/11700165.html
2. 李毅选集第二卷《中国社会分层结构的演变》,2015,九州出版社。
http://product.dangdang.com/23817834.html
https://item.jd.com/12041656.html
3. 李毅《社会学概论》2011,暨南大学出版社。
http://product.dangdang.com/21053138.html
https://item.jd.com/10621272.html
4. 《中国社会分层的结构与演变》(中译本),2008,安徽大学出版社。
http://product.dangdang.com/20433963.html
5. 主编研究生教材《马克思社会思想史纲》,1993,中国社会科学文献出版社。
http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/30825697
6. 李毅:“第三章 国际社会学的主要流派及发展态势”,《社会学-西方人文社科前沿述评》,中国人民大学出版社,2007。
http://product.dangdang.com/9346448.html
7. 《李毅:官员财产公示与党员遗产限额》,见互联网。
8. 《李毅:蔡英文2020年1月连任后 大陆怎样统一台湾?》,见互联网。
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